The Mandela Effect (Part 4 – The Rationalist Cult Member)
This is a continuation of the Mandela Effect story.For the introduction, clickhere. How did you first become aware of the Incident? Do you believe in coincidences? Um, what? There’s a system called Bayesian statistics. It’s a mathematical procedure that applies probabilities to statistical problems. This allows people to update their beliefs in the evidence of new data. For example, if somebody beats the stock market once, we might say they got lucky or it was a fluke occurrence. If somebody beats the stock market five times in a row, we would say that they have got some advantage or technique that works better than everybody else, because the chance of beating the stock market five times in a row by pure chance is pretty slim. I’m not sure how this relates to the Incident. That’s because you’re not thinking in terms of Bayesian probabilities. The Incident plays havoc with probability. Things that we might consider the unlikeliest of scenarios – like Trump winning – suddenly start happening all the time. Suddenly the weirdest and most outlandishly random things become normal day-to-day occurrences. Like the number 21, or the colors. Wait, I sound crazy, don’t I? (Laughs) Sorry, I’ve been told that’s a by-product of spending too much time around the Incident. I’m not crazy, I assure you. It’s just that when you see this kind of… reality distortion, for lack of a better word, it’s a little unsettling. Let me start from the beginning. We found the subject online, as you undoubtedly heard from (the Silicon Valley Mogul). We listed his predictions out. Understand that at this point, we simply thought he was a newly discovered super forecaster. The purpose of listing his predictions was to quantify accuracy. One of these predictions involved Bitcoin. His prediction was that in approximately five years, Bitcoin would collapse. That sounded strange to me, so I crunched the numbers to see what might possibly happen in five years. It turns out that five years from his predicted date is when the last Bitcoin was expected to be mined. You see, Bitcoin was designed to have a finite limit, with each bitcoin being harder to mine than the Bitcoin before it. This limit was intended to artificially inflate the currency, giving a “first mover” advantage to the people who bought into Bitcoin first. In investment terms, the incentives of Bitcoin seem designed to trigger an early adopter gold rush. So apparently our anonymous super forecaster figures that once the last bitcoin is mined, nobody outside of the bitcoin owners will have any incentive to accept the currency, and the speculative bubble will pop, similar to the Dutch tulip mania of 1637. That didn’t strike me as particularly unusual, until we found out about the subject’s odd preference for the number 21 – their calling card, if you will. Do you know what the maximum number of bitcoins is? 21 million. It led me to wonder if perhaps the subject had some involvement in the creation of bitcoin, since he majored in computer science in college and had some background as a former programmer. Could he have indirectly influenced the creator of Bitcoin? It turns out that there’s no way to be sure, since the creator of Bitcoin is completely anonymous and untraceable. Once I noticed that, other coincidences started to pop up, all involving the number 21 in some way. For example, the subject had predicted early in the Democratic primaries - in his usual shifty unprovable way involving typing and deletion - that Biden would be President Trump’s most dangerous foe. Subsequent to this prediction, Trump made the historic phone call to the Ukraine that led to his impeachment. You know that the first day of Trump’s impeachment trial was January 21st – isn’t that an interesting coincidence? And wasn’t Trump’s first phone call to the Ukraine also on the 21st? These coincidences started to add up in eerily improbable ways, and I found myself a bit reminded of the story of Macbeth. There’s more. Supposedly, the subject spent a lot of time on a Reddit forum known as drama – which was also started on the 21st. I started to wonder if the subject had not just predicted these events, but was also somehow causing them. If so, it would have taken unparalleled planning ability to be able to coordinate these events so far ahead of time. Then the color thing happened, and my whole perspective changed. One singer seemed to be trying particularly hard to get the attention of the subject by creating music videos with the colors that he had specified. The subject said “Why try so hard to signal to me in the present? Just look into your past, and you’ll already see your own future staring right back out at you.” I looked at her music videos, and I realized that a lot of the previous music videos she had made already used the colors that the subject referenced, even though they were dated from before the subject had ever mentioned the colors. It was as if on some subconscious level, this singer had known about the colors retroactively. Once I realized this, I started to examine the subject’s behavior more closely, looking at past events as well as the future. He liked to visit a nearby cemetary a lot, and while there, our cameras caught him reciting a “spell” in front of a tombstone made of rose quartz. It turns out that there were a lot of those rose quartz tombstones in that cemetary – a suspiciously high amount. Upon further research, it turns out that the reason for these rose quartz graves was because of a hurricane that had ripped through New England in 1938 – on September 21st. That was when my worst suspicions were confirmed. Somehow, the incident was affecting time. Had the gravestones always been rose quartz? Or did the spell make the hurricane happen 80 years ago, and so our memories were changed to fit with the new timeline? Ask yourself this – if somebody sent a single photon back in time and created a butterfly effect that altered history, how would you know? But surely if time was being altered, somebody would have noticed it, right? Well, it turns out that there’s actually quite a lot of people who say that they’ve noticed alterations to the timeline – it’s just that the rest of us don’t believe them. We laugh at them and call them crazy. Hell, a few years I was one of the people laughing at people like that. Well, who’s laughing now? (Laughs hysterically) What is your interpretation of the Incident? At one point, the subject seemed frustrated by our attention. “This has all happened before, and you idiots react exactly the same way each time,” he said. What if that’s accurate? History contains countless stories of witches and wizards. Today we laugh at our ancestors for believing in silly stories about magic and faeries, but rationalists and Silicon Valley executives talk quite seriously about the possibility that we are living in a simulation, and that one might be able to partially hack the “user permissions” of reality itself. What if it’s the same thing? Imagine that you’re some sort of extradimensional being with the ability to hack this “reality matrix” in a few unique ways. According to the subtext of the Spellbook – which we have been studying very carefully - these things don’t have bodies: instead, they manifest their consciousness to a limited extent in gifted people’s psyches. That sounds a lot like reincarnation to me. How long could such a creature live? Maybe a short time. Maybe forever. We know these things like to keep a low profile, but they aren’t perfect at it. We discovered this one by accident, and in response, it rapidly created a religious cult to defend itself and started distorting reality to advance its goals. Surely this could have happened before. Why are we so certain that this is a new phenomenon? Maybe a lot of the other “secret societies” and “magical orders” that existed throughout history started in exactly the same way. Somebody noticed one of these creatures doing something inexplicable, they reacted to defend themselves, and next thing you know we have a secret cult of influential people all learning magic from their new extradimensional mentor. In other words, exactly like what is starting to happen now. It’s like this thing didn’t even bother to change its MO. (Laughs wildly.) And hey, why would it? Some things are so well optimized that they hardly ever need to change. They go through existence unchanged by evolution because they are already perfectly evolved. What part of the Incident would you categorize as paranormal or outside the bounds of understanding? Haven’t you been listening? Pretty much everything about the incident defies explanation. We have prophecies coming true, clairvoyance, strange psychic dreams, vast conspiracies, strange transhuman cults, and fringe science. I know what you’re thinking: I was in this from the start, so supposedly I was one of the people most heavily impacted by the mental effect of the Incident. But the truth is that the only thing I was impacted by is the understanding that our entire understanding of reality is a lie. Who wouldn’t be impacted by that?
Bitcoin mining may be a senseless waste of energy. As bitcoin hits mainstream media, the subject of bitcoin mining bubble regarding to pop.For ten years, the media has enjoyed painting bitcoin as a bubble concerning to pop. They’ve gleefully pronounced the bubble popped and bitcoin dead … over 350 times. However the reality regarding bitcoin is that it keeps coming back back. Why? Charlie Munger called bitcoin “worthless artificial gold.” Others in the media have likened bitcoin to a bubble, a “tulip mania,” and different strong statements Each time bitcoin improves itself (like with Segwit Segregated Witnesses. A protocol implemented by Bitcoin to extend transaction speed. SegWit allows a lot of transactions to be written into a single block on a blockchain. or the Lightning Network), or will increase in value, the media is keen and ready to jump on it, decrying and denouncing it. Therefore what’s the reality behind bitcoin’s price -- is it extremely a bubble? The reality regarding bitcoin is straightforward; it's experiencing the same rise and fall cycles as each new technology and asset catego The web also experienced a bubble. Shares of dotcom firms rose by a thousandpercent on a daily basis. Then it all tumbled down. However we have a tendency to’re still using the web, aren’t we have a tendency to? More than ever, in fact. Stocks conjointly experienced big boom and bust cycles, especially in their early days. We might feel like stocks have been around forever -- and to us they need. However stocks conjointly had a starting, and a rough one too. Once upon a time in 1531, when the first stocks were invented, they saw extraordinary volatility, scams, and no regulation. In fact, before stock exchanges, they were sold at occasional shops -- just like cryptocurrencies were sold on la peer to peer marketplace, before exchanges came online. Even property, viewed by the majority as “the safest investment” experienced a dramatic cycle. Business Insider reported that “Between 2006 and 2014, nearly ten million homeowners in America saw the foreclosure sale of their own homes.” And tens of thousands became homeless as a result of of it. Nevertheless --- we have a tendency to’re still living in homes, aren’t we? The future of bitcoin would possibly be the identical as that of stocks, bonds, assets, and the web. It rises and falls like all the others, and it is currently terribly volatile -- but that’s as a result of it’s young. Stocks have been around for 400 years. Dotcom corporations for forty years. Bitcoin is solely 10 years previous -- and cryptocurrencies, normally, are even younger. But slowly, they will become a part of our daily lives. Rich investors are manipulating costs! Look at this headline from the Independent: “Bitcoin price Crash: 'Manipulative Whales Whale A very wealthy individual capable of creating massive trades. View full glossary ' cause Cryptocurrency Market Meltdown!” It’s sensationalism, pure and straightforward. The article goes on to rant against these therefore-known as “whales” -- individuals who own voluminous dollars of BTC -- as evil-doers who’s solely thought is profit. This type of sensationalism is meant to harm Bitcoin’s future; to scare people faraway from doing research and thinking for themselves. Nonetheless, this statement is somewhat true. Up to eighty five% of Bitcoin’s supply is solely owned by onepercent of wallet addresses. But there’s an important point to be made about these numbers. Most of the prime percentage of wallets is not owned by whales -- but by exchanges Exchange On-line platforms on which people can buy and sell cryptocurrencies. View full glossary . However their result is getting smaller and smaller. A company referred to as Chainalysis -- that makes a speciality of analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain -- found that “the actual threat that all whales pose to the cryptocurrency economy is relatively low. If they sold off their entire holdings, it'd be effectively a $3.9 billion sale at current costs. That’s not even tenpercent of this total market capitalization of Bitcoin.” This is as a result of, as I hinted above, several of those wallets holding such vast sums are the ‘cold wallets ’ (wallets held offline) belonging to major exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and more. These wallets cannot be used to manipulate the price, diminishing the potential impact of enormous ‘whales’ selling their positions. Bitcoin is simply too slow for use as a currency. The reality regarding Bitcoin is that yes, it's slower than VISA, Mastercard, and alternative centralized electronic payment systems. Paying together with your credit cards takes seconds and the network can handle payments around the globe twenty fouseven. But, though Bitcoin can additionally be used around the world, confirmation of payment takes an average of 10 minutes; during the bitcoin craze recently 2017, confirmation times might take hours. Moreover, VISA on average processes around 2,00zero transactions per second (tps). This means the amount of payments individuals make per second on the network. VISA includes a maximum of twenty four,00zero TPS. Bitcoin, by distinction, has a maximum of ten TPS. This argument has been place forward by several critics over the years and picked up by the media as the doom of bitcoin’s future. However Bitcoin could be a technology that evolves. Now let’s assume regarding Bitcoin’s past for a moment. The coin and its underlying technology -- the blockchain -- are only ten years previous. When the web was ten years old -- the year was 1989. Do you keep in mind the net in 1989? I sure do. payments in exchange for not revealing sensitive info. So, in bound ways that, BTC and cryptocurrencies offer hackers a lot of options. However money continues to be king for every criminality. Though it’s true that hackers and phishers do typically ask for payment in BTC There’s an aphorism: “money talks.” It means that that if you would like to get something done -- the best argument you can build is to place down a stack of money. When Bitcoin rose to fame, the primary headlines focused around Bitcoin being the prime choice for criminality. But Lilita Infante, Special Agent for the DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration) has some contradictory info regarding this. She was one among a ten-person Cyber Investigative Task Force team whose primary aim was the dark web and crypto-related investigations. This cluster is no little force. They collaborate with the Department of Justice, FBI, and also the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. And she went on the record to talk regarding what share of bitcoin transactions are literally being employed for illegal things; she said that “illegal activity has shrunk to about 10 p.c.” Only tenp.c of all the transactions on the Bitcoin network could be used for illegal things. Which number is falling. The fall in Bitcoin’s use among criminals is due to several factors. The most prominent factor is that Bitcoin is no longer anonymous. Sciencemag wrote a full report on how governments are developing and using techniques to explore the Bitcoin blockchain and notice criminals by tracing their bitcoin payments. Paying with bitcoin isn’t simple. I’ve heard this argument flow into widely throughout the years. I still hear it from my grandpa each vacation dinner. He didn’t see a Bitcoin checkout option at the grocery when he bought the turkey -- therefore it’ll never be used. Perhaps Bitcoin is on its means to being such a store of worth. For 10 years now bitcoin has been ready to be saved and retrieved and exchanged -- and it’s worth has only gone up (bumpy but up). Need to get more cryptocurrencies? Check out our top 5 cryptocurrencies to shop for, whether you’re a beginner or an experienced investor! Bitcoin is difficult to use. Bitcoin, like all new technologies, isn't the most user-friendly. You would like to line up a wallet, bear in mind a seed phrase, and several additional steps. Sending and receiving BTC payments additionally involves steps of copy/pasting long strings of random letters and numbers. It’s powerful, I hear ya. I additionally keep in mind all the steps I needed to require to send emails back when those were new. Insert a CD from AOL into my computer. Install AOL. Unplug my phone line. Plug in my Modem. Wait for it to make all those noises and finally connect. Then set up my AOL email and password. It was quite the method. My grandfather never thought emails would come out and even my mother said folks would perpetually like handwriting letters (and using a physical dictionary for spell check!) and sending through the post. Think about it the approach we tend to assume about gold. Not everyone has gold. It’s also a bit difficult to own. If you wish to own gold for its ‘store of price’ properties, you wish to seek out a specialized look to buy investment gold. You need to store it somewhere, sort of a personal safe or a bank vault, and bear in mind the password. This is somewhat troublesome. https://preview.redd.it/k0x3jqsm8df51.jpg?width=770&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff7c2f29881c28fb22c9828c497cc1981eea2919 Perhaps Bitcoin’s problem will facilitate it retain its value, just like gold You Might Conjointly Like: The 5 est Bitcoin Sports Betting Sites https://www.cryptoerapro.com/bitcoin-future/
Some very important points that most people do not understand about Bitcoin
Point 1) Most people do not understand that you can't send money over internet, but only information. Bitcoin is the first digital settlement layer. When I send a picture to someone on Facebook messenger, I don't actually send a picture. I send information about the pictures structure, and the picture gets restructured on the client side (the cellphone) of the user I send it to. Copy of the information is being sent, not the picture itself. So you can't send money over internet, it is not possible, only information. If I have a bank account at some bank, and I send $50 dollars to another person in the same bank by using the banks website, then a transaction happens between two people within the same infrastructure, which is the banks back-end system and database. So the banks system just subtracts $50 dollars from one person and adds $50 dollars to another person. But no money has moved, only information has been edited. But if I send money to someone that uses another Bank, then this bank has its own infrastructure which is independent of the first. So Bank1 tells Bank2 that they have a user that wants to send money to a user of the other bank. So Bank1 subtracts $50 from User1, and Bank2 adds $50 to User2, but now Bank1 owes Bank2 $50, why? Because you can't send money over internet. So they have to settle the difference between them with some kind of a settlement system, (cash, gold or a third party like a central bank). This difference can be the result of many transactions between many users and can be millions of dollars of worth, the settlement can be done periodically for example every 6 months. With Bitcoin, because of how the system works, it is almost as if you can send value over internet for the first time, even though you don't really send value, you still send information, but since the infrastructure is global, it is like the first example, it is as if the world has (one large bank infrastructure), that is fully automated and which no one controls. This alone makes Bitcoin extremely valuable, because it is a trust less digital settlement layer which is extremely secure and not dependent on one particular nation or organisation. Point 2) There can never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. This is very hard for people to grasp. Because what do you mean there can never be more than 21 million bitcoin? It sounds like a game, such a scam... People do not understand that Bitcoin is not normal software. In normal software the developers can change the code as they want and publish the code when they want. They do not understand that Bitcoin is a software that is not like a normal software. You can't actually change the number even if the number is programmed in. Which of-course most people will deny, because it makes no sense for most people. They do not understand that even though it is theoretically possible to change it, it is practically almost impossible. It is theoretically possible for me to convince half of Sweden to burn half of their money, but practically impossible. Just because something is theoretically possible, doesn't mean that it will happen within a time frame, or even in your lifetime. In order for the 21 million supply to change, most people in the Bitcoin community needs to agree on it, which is practically impossible. Miners have to change to the new protocol and so on. Not going to happen. When gold treasures were lost in the past, someone else could find them. Gold practically never completely disappears, it is a chemical element. With Bitcoin, once it is lost it is practically lost forever (put aside quantum computing for now and other theoretical unforeseeable events). 21 million is only the upper theoretical limit. Bitcoin will be more and more scarce as time goes by. Gold is not like this. Gold has an inflation rate of 1,5% every year. The reason it is constant is because even if the stock gets bigger, the flow into the stock also gets bigger because of better mining capabilities, so you can look at it as constant inflation of 1.5% every year. With Bitcoin, not only do the stock to flow ratio go up every halvening, and the flow into bitcoin not only decreases with time, but almost goes into negative because of lost coins every year. This is completely insane and people do not understand this. If you combine this almost deflationary nature of Bitcoin with extreme bullish market sentiment then you will realize that no one knows what is going to happen in the future because wrapping your head around all this and to come to a conclusion about the Bitcoin price will make you sound absolutely delusional to most people. Point 3) People think that $100,000 bitcoin is wishful thinking and that there is not enough money in the world for Bitcoin to be worth millions of dollars. Which I can assure you is false. Bitcoin can even be worth $50 million dollars per coin, which would make 2 satoshi 1 dollar. Even if one Bitcoin transaction would cost 10 000 Satoshi. You might say, that's not possible, whats the point if one transaction is so expensive. Again, you don't need to actually do a transfer of money, as in the first example of point 1, virtual transactions on bank level can happen, or on Coinbase. You can send 100 satoshi to someone and pay 1 satoshi in fee "on the bank level", not on chain, banks or exchanges then will settle the difference as they want. At least with Bitcoin you have the option to be you own bank, even if that will cost you more, you still have the option. This is already happening in front of your eyes. Banks like Dutch ING, Deutsche bank, are already working on custody services for cryptocurrencies. And even exchanges want to operate as banks and exchanges like Coinbase are working to get license for this. This is already happening and it is the correct move forwards, a mix between the legacy banking system and cryptocurrencies. You can already spend your Bitcoin with Coinbase Visa Card or similar services. Most people are too lazy and stupid to operate like us with their own wallets, it is a fact well known. In terms of the price, money inflow is not the same as market cap. Take for instance the following simple scenario. I own 100% of the shares of my own company and I decide to sell 10% of the company for 1 million USD, which will value my whole company at 10 million USD, so 1 million flow into my company leads to 10x market cap of 10 million USD. For Bitcoin to have 21 trillion market cap, Bitcoin does not need 21 trillion of money inflow. Bitcoin price is dependent on market sentiment, if the market sentiment is such that very few people want to sell their coins because the price keeps going up then you might have 100x market cap of the money inflow. So 1 billion USD in money inflow translates to 100 billion USD in market cap. The multiplier can be 10x, 2x or 50x, all depends on market sentiment and time period. So an inflow of 10 trillion USD in 10 years might lead to 100 trillion USD market cap of BTC and 5 million USD per Bitcoin. Bitcoin value have no roof, the price might actually just keep going up and up and up and up and up. We have never had something that is absolutely scarce, and global, and seen as an alternative form of money, when the rest of the world keeps bubbling up. There is no limit on the BTC price because the whole world works with a bubbly system, and the way Bitcoin is price discovered, is a guaranteed insane BTC price in the future. Even $100 million USD per Bitcoin in 50 years before I am dead is possible. Point 4) Fiat does not need to die, and Bitcoin does not need to take over in order for Bitcoin to have "ridiculous price". No financial crisis is needed. Actually what you want is things to just continue as they have done in the last 10 years. No too extreme events. Just "small events" here and there. You can't change human nature, it is inevitable. Bitcoin is so ingrained into our world that there is no way back. There will be people with whole Bitcoin, and people without. Just like people with gold and stock investments and real estate, and people without those things. No insane events, this is all normal. Point 5) Bitcoin has won as the financial cryptocurrency. No flippening will happen. The only flippening will be with gold and fiat currencies. If I wanted to, I could have developed a system like PayPal in 1 month time, and it would be able to do 5000 transactions per second because I would use MySQL and SSD, but no one would use my service because they would not trust me because they have no idea who I am and what my service is, and there is no one to send money too, so the network is not there. Bitcoin has won because security and network effect is way more important than transactions per second. Transactions per second will be dealt with on bank level, exchange level, or layer 2 solutions. This is already clear to me. Bitcoin has won. Point 6) In order to understand Bitcoin and what will happen in the future, you have to be able to see things that are not in front of you. You can't compare Bitcoin to Tulip mania, or even Gold. Because something like Bitcoin has never existed before and you have to think about it's properties and try to understand it with human nature and with how the world works and how everything keeps increasing, and Bitcoin is the thing that does not increase in supply. You will eventually accept the unnatural thought of Bitcoin never stopping going up in value, which is something that is hard to come to terms with, because it feels unnatural, "and it could not possibly be so". Point 7) The Gini coefficient of Bitcoin is not a big deal. I used to think that it was unfair that some people had 1,000 BTC, 10,000 BTC, or even 50,000 BTC. And I was afraid that they might dump their coins into the market and crash it. I have now realised that these people are smart people and they think like me, and they won't just dump their whole BTC holding on the market as that might be a very bad move for them. It is like when a majority holder of a company, like Jeff Bezos and Amazon, understands that he can't sell all of his shares in one go as that would effect Amazon stock value too much and would not be smart. It is best to sell when the price goes up, but then when they sell the BTC will just be eaten up by other people, and they will be at a loss in the longer term. And the other thing is that perhaps there is no other smart place to put that fiat money, Bitcoin might just be the best place to keep those amounts of money. Someone with a very large holding has two options. He can either sell his BTC, in which case the price would go down but the Bitcoin would be spread out between potentially thousands of new users, or he might decide to never sell. If he decides to never sell, it is as if those Bitcoins are lost forever and that is good for the Bitcoin price and Bitcoin in general. If he decides to sell then Bitcoin will be divided more equally among many users which is also a good thing for Bitcoin because that increases the network effect, and after he sells he no longer has the power to drive the price down, but now he sits on a very large fiat holding, he might even buy back at a higher price and drive the price higher. I know that if I had 10,000 BTC, I would sell 1,000 BTC and buy a house and a car and whatever I wanted, and sell another 1,000 BTC to diversify into some other assets. And keep 8,000 BTC because I don't know of anywhere else to put that kind of money into good work. I believe in Bitcoin so as an investor it makes sense to keep it here. I probably would never sell because I would never need anything else after the initial 1,000 BTC sell. Bitcoin is like a black hole that sucks in the Earths monetary resources over time. Most people that bought really early and were smart enough to hold all the way to these prices will only sell what they need to sell and keep the rest in BTC. Some of them might want to speculate and try to time the ATH, only to buy back in with most of the fiat they sold. Which means that even if money goes out of the market, it only goes out of the market temporarily, only to get back in at hopefully lower prices. And so the market grows, and grows and grows over time. Point 8) Bitcoin has intrinsic value. When people like Peter Schiff say that gold has intrinsic value because gold can be used in electronics and aviation and therefore gold has value but Bitcoin has no value because it has no intrinsic value, you have to take a pause and do some critical thinking. Can you imagine 16th century pirates looking to find a gold treasure worth an insane amount because they knew gold had value because of electronics and aviation? This is clearly absurd. Gold has been used as money for thousands of years and electronics and aviation was not even a thing 150 years ago. Gold has value because it is globally scarce. Bitcoin is absolutely verifiable scarce. Bitcoin has intrinsic value because of it's monetary policy and because you can carry millions of dollars of value by remembering only 24 words in your head, and carry that value wherever you want and no one can stop you, that is intrinsic value. People had a hard time understanding that a website like Facebook could be worth billions of dollars, because it was not physical, it was "just a website". Even a website like Google search is not physical and still it has immense value. It is valuable information and it provides a good service, and that has value, it does not have to be physical and tangible.
I'm sure you already know my sentiments, but let me take a moment and lay out the reasons why. The Dutch Tulip Bubble (or "Tulip Mania") was a period during the Golden Age when the price of Tulip bulbs skyrocketed in a speculative bubble that burst, in February of 1637. Bidders had run the price of certain tulips (arguably the most gorgeous and lovely ones) to price heights that made no sense. Speculators were mortgaging houses to buy tulips, and some of the most expensive ones could cost the value of a real house. The Dutch economy was booming, and the citizenry enjoyed the highest financial statndard of living in the world at the time. Significant amounts of discretionary income, coupled with a devaluing of the Dutch Kronur (less and less precious metals had been used for the minting of the Kronur over the previous decades) led to the very real popular concept that the price could only go up. Of course, after European markets started trading tulip bulbs and the excitement grew to a manic phase, the bottom fell out, and people realized that there is no comparison between the value of a flower and real assets, like houses, horses, food, etc., and the market imploded. The Dot-Com bubble of the late 1990's was similar to Tulip Mania in some ways (bubbles always are) but significantly different in ways we need to acknowledge and examine. Speculation is always at the core of any bubble, and Tulip Mania, the Dot Com Bubble and the Crypto Run-Up of 2017 and subsequent collapse in 2018 are no exception. As greed and excitement kick in and override the Human Brain's ability to discern smart from not, the human's tendency to stampede--in either direction, up or down--is significantly increased as the amount of money involved increases. Capitalist hegemony has imprinted directly on our hippocampuses the concept that the goal is to die wealthy; to die poor is anathema in all segments of human society. "He who dies with the most toys wins!" is a common exclamation. So when opportunity presents itself, Humans tend to try to take advantage of it, even when the opportunity makes no sense. The Dot Com bubble was one where big industrial financing actually created the monster by throwing huge sums of money at pretty much any idea and team that had an interesting, internet based theme. eToys.com, Baby.com, et. al., were simply brick and mortar ideas repackaged for the internet--and mostly repackaged to sell the investment. The only difference was the ".com" on the end, and to the investment community, that was more than enough to open the money spigots. The main difference between the Tulip Mania bubble and the Dot Com bubble is the actual technology. The Dot Com bubble was a ton of fluff, surrounding a strong core of real innovation and futuretech. The Tulip Mania bubble was, for lack of a better term, simply flowers. So applying these historical times with today's Crypto run-up and implosion, there are obvious and undeniable similarities. The run up in Crypto has made many people instantly and effortlessly wealthy, indeed, some of them are celebrities now, simply because they threw a small amount of money at a project at the right moment and spun the wheel. And we hear from some of these guys every day. The smaller "players" (I call them 'posers') who made some money by pure luck and now fashion themselves to be experts ("Listen to me! I made money last year and I have a youtube channel!") are all expounding on the virtues of this coin and the shitcoin propensity of that project. In most cases, they were lucky, once. Beware their advice. The Crypto bubble and collapse is much more parallel to the Dot Com bubble and collapse because at the core of both situations lies a transformative technology and a handful of good projects/companies that emerge at the end of the chaos with strong product and ideas that the public will need, will buy and which will survive. These projects are typically underhyped, undervalued, and are considered "sleepers" at some point in the bubble. This is because instead of chasing financing or chasing popular opinion, they are quietly and methodically perfecting their technologies, their products and their consumer experiences. These projects are few and far between, interspecked within the flotsam and jetsam of multitudes of "debris projects" that will not survive. Who remembers MySpace? Who remembers AOL? Who remembers dialup and the AOL "coaster CD?" Who remembers Netscape, AltaVista and Webcrawler? Amazon, Netflix, eBay, Google, Facebook and a few others were also generated in this timeframe. Tulip Mania had no survivors, as there was no innovation involved. Simple greed, and when the music stopped, most people were on the wrong side of the chairs. After the Dot Com bubble burst, however, was a period of quiet, thoughtful and valuable growth. Those who survived the carnage continued on to be come the current Captains of Internet Industry, and have made those who found them, researched them, and invested in them fantastically, famously wealthy. I believe we are at the point where the bubble has burst, and the dust is settling, in the Crypto bubble. The real and innovative projects have continued their work and are busily planning for the next phase. I strongly believe the Kin Foundation is one of those, and I've invested because of the research I've done. I've asked some here if they could go back and invest in Apple at the early stages, would they? And the varying and interesting answers I've gotten have ranged from "I'd have better things to do than invest in Apple" to "if Apple were $1 again, there'd be something wrong." Truly chuckle worthy, but telling. Not everyone will see the opportunity for what it is. Not everyone will take advantage. Weak hands will sell, and weak minds will bash. Only the people who invest with their heads, not just their hearts will make the right moves. For me, Kin is the Amazon of the Dot Com Bubble. It's where I put my emphasis, my research, my effort and my thoughts. I have invested in many companies and cryptos along the way... I missed out on the Bitcoin rise, but I made money in the Dot Com bubble. I've ridden tech stocks via options for years, and the intrinsically unstable nature of those investments have made the risk of this one much less worrisome. So the point is this: when the naysayers croak at you, don't worry about it. History is behind us, and if you've done the research I have, you know that Kin is a strong contender to come out strong and vibrant and profitable on the other side. It's why I'm here, and it's why we're all here. Cheers.
Why Bitcoin is NOT a scam / lottery / bubble / Tulip mania / whatever
So, another thread has hit /all and brought another influx of people new to Bitcoin. I usually don't pay much attention to all negative comments, but since I have some extra time today and nothing better to do... I wanted to address the main thing that often pops up in these threads. Namely: is Bitcoin a scam? First of all, if you asked me this question in few years back (2015 when price crashed back to $200)... I would've said: maybe. At that point jury was still out - I often like to quote Satoshi's genius observation:
In twenty years, Bitcoin will either be worth quite a lot or nothing
With marketcap below $4B Bitcoin was still an easy target. We all remember MtGox scandal, government dumping Bitcoin seized from Silk Road for $48m (boy... did they dropped the ball with that one ;), discussions in Senate etc. etc. Meaning - at that point - it was still possible for rogue actor to pump and dump and break the whole system beyond repair. But, it is end of 2017 now... and Bitcoin is worth over $7000 (boy, will it be fun when it's over 9000 ;). All this results in Bitcoin ecosystem being way more powerful now than few years back. Not only there is daily trading volume of over $3 BILLION going through Bitcoin... There are now Bitcoin companies that are worth over $1B. Hell, there are people who are Bitcoin billionaires. Which brings us to the main point:
Bitcoin is genuine technological revolution, accompanied by tangible merits. In a nutshell, Bitcoin is a scam in 2010s as much as Internet was a scam in 1990s.
1 Bitcoin is valuable because you can do "technologically new" things with it. Never before in the history of humanity we had TRULY DECENTRALIZED "asset" that had properties traditionally associated with currencies (previously always backed by someone / government) or commodities (like gold).
Bitcoin is a store of value. You can easily hold it with your private key and NOBODY can take it away from you. Compare that to having $1 in the bank - government can block it. If you have $1 and you hold it in cash, government can still take parts of it from you through inflation (dollar has lost 99% of it's value from 1950s). Also, compare Bitcoin to gold - it's MUCH easier to store. And much easier to turn into medium of exchange.
Bitcoin is medium of exchange. You can buy stuff directly in Bitcoin. Numerous websites and people around the globe now accept it. You can easily transfer it. Wherever you are in the world, you can instantly send Bitcoin to other people. This is not a big deal for people in first world countries as they have numerous options. But for majority of the world this is a HUGE deal. More than 50% of population is without bank account (let along online bank account) and have no way to participate in global economy.
Bitcoin is unit of account. If you have Bitcoin you can exchange it for whatever currency you want. In a sense Bitcoin is MORE VALUABLE than native currencies of MANY countries. If you are in Venezuela right now, would you rather hold Bolivar or Bitcoin? It's kinda no-brainer, right?
I hope this overview gave you good insight into why it's pretty much impossible for Bitcoin to be scam at this point. Like, I understand that recent HUGE price jump can influence people to see Bitcoin as Tulip mania. But Tulip mania was a scam because nothing substantial changed with tulips over night. People just started paying more and more for them. Plus, you could always produce more Tulips. With Bitcoin you have genuine technological revolution behind. If you own Bitcoin you can do stuff you never could do before in various parts of the world. It's like banking infrastructure on steroids really. Plus, unlike Tulips, Bitcoin supply is limited. Hell, even gold - you can always mine more of it. Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million, for all eternity. Any question - fell free to hit me up. Always glad to help newcomers to Bitcoin! EDIT: One of the responses says - OK, we can agree Bitcoin is obviously not a scam. But, is it a bubble? Consider that Bitcoin has been a bubble for last 8 years. It was bubble when it was $2. It was bubble when it was $30. I thought it was bubble when it broke $2000. Hell, to me stock market is in the bubble. I like to compare Bitcoin to Internet... lots of people thought "Internet is a bubble"... yet 20 years later, here it is... completely changing humanity. In that sense I think Internet is best comparison to Bitcoin... time will tell whether or not Bitcoin is right now in the bubble... but I strongly believe that in 20 years Bitcoin will be above today's levels. Now, if you share my long term prospects - then "Bitcoin bubble" will never be too much of an issue for you. Like - I don't buy in batches... I dollar cost average my BTC investment (you can look through my history for more info). See also Max_Thundernice observation of using Bitcoin as vehicle for protection against inflation... EDIT: I've incorrectly presented amount of money pumped into Bitcoin... read this for explanation. EDIT: I also want to emphasize one thing:
DO NOT go ALL IN hoping that Bitcoin will hit whatever mark. Especially DO NOT BORROW MONEY and GO ALL IN unless you are ready to forget about whatever money you've invested for next 20 years.
95% of people I know that have been trading Bitcoin have LOST most of their money. I know bunch of people who bought at $20 and then sold at $2. Then there is a group that bought at $800 and sold at $200. There are also those on other side of equation... there was short worth tens of millions of $$$ earlier this year when BTC was breaking $1100. Crazy thing - Bitcoin price did drop few days later... but that was AFTER short was wiped out and whoever did it lost TENS OF MILLIONS of $$$. Profiting is not only about being right about eventual price... it's also about knowing when it'll happen. Final EDIT: Blow away by all the feedback. That's why I like to post here - I get interact with people and in the process learn something new. I'll be monitoring my Inbox so if you have more questions just drop them here. And if you like my writing, visit my motivational / various blog that I update occasionally.
Had you invested $27 on Bitcoin when it was produced by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009 your financial investment would now deserve over $37,000,000. Commonly considered as the best financial investment automobile of perpetuity, Bitcoin has actually seen a meteoric increase throughout 2017 going from $777 all the method to $17,000. Producing millionaires out of opportunistic financiers and leaving banks open-mouthed, Bitcoin has actually addressed its critics at every turning point this year and some think this is simply the start. The launch of Bitcoin futures on December 10th, which for the very first time will permit financiers to go into the Bitcoin market through a significant regulated United States exchange, suggests that we are simply beginning. What makes Bitcoin so important is that there is a limited quantity out there. There will just ever be an optimum of 21 million Bitcoins and unlike typical fiat currencies you can't simply print more of them whenever you seem like. This is since Bitcoin operates on an evidence of work procedure: in order to develop it, you need to mine it utilizing computer system processing power to resolve intricate algorithms on the Bitcoin blockchain. When this is accomplished, you are rewarded with Bitcoin as payment for the "work" you have actually done. Sadly the benefit you get for mining has actually reduced dramatically practically every year considering that Bitcoin's beginning, which indicates that for many people the only feasible method to get Bitcoin is purchasing it on an exchange. At the present rate levels is that a danger worth taking? Lots of think Bitcoin is merely a bubble. I talked to cryptocurrency professional and long term financier Duke Randal who believes the possession is miscalculated, "I would compare this to numerous supply and need bubbles over history such as Dutch Tulip Mania and the dot com bubble of the late 90s. Costs are simply speculation based, and when you take a look at Bitcoin's performance as a real currency it is practically awkward." For those who do not understand, the dot com bubble was a duration in between 1997-2001 where lots of web business were established and offered insanely positive assessments based simply on speculation that later plunged 80-90% as the bubble started to collapse in the early 2000s. Some business such as eBay and Amazon, recuperated and now sit far above those evaluations however for others it was completion of the line. Bitcoin was initially produced in order to take power far from our monetary systems and put individuals in control of their own cash, eliminating the middle guy and allowing peer to peer deals. Nevertheless, it is now among the slowest cryptocurrencies on the marketplace, its deal speed is 4 times slower than the 5th most significant cryptocurrency and its closest rival for payment options Litecoin. Untraceable personal privacy coin Monero makes deals even quicker, boasting a typical block time of simply 2 minutes, a fifth of the time Bitcoin can do it in, which lacks privacy. The world's 2nd most significant cryptocurrency, Ethereum, currently has a greater deal volume than Bitcoin in spite of being valued at just $676 dollars per Ether compared to Bitcoin's $16,726 per Bitcoin. So why is Bitcoin's worth so high? I asked John McAfee the exact same concern. "Everything returns to the very same supply and need economics, fairly there is not quite Bitcoin offered and its current rise in cost has actually drawn in a great deal of limelights, this integrated with the launch of Bitcoin futures which numerous view as the very first indication Bitcoin is being accepted by the mass market, has actually led to a great deal of individuals following suit for monetary gain. Like any possession, when there is a greater need to purchase than to offer, the cost increases. This is bad since these brand-new financiers are getting in the marketplace without comprehending blockchain and the underlying concepts of these currencies indicating they are most likely to get charred". Another factor is that Bitcoin is incredibly unstable, it has actually been understood to swing up or down countless dollars in less than a minute which if you are not utilized to nor anticipating it, triggers less knowledgeable financiers to worry sell, leading to a loss. This is yet another factor Bitcoin will have a hard time to be embraced as a kind of payment. The Bitcoin rate can move significantly in between the time suppliers accept Bitcoin from clients and offer it on to exchanges for their regional currency. This unpredictable motion can erase their whole success. Will this instability disappear whenever quickly? Not most likely: Bitcoin is a fairly brand-new property class and although awareness is increasing, just a really little portion of the world's population hold Bitcoin. Till it ends up being more extensively dispersed and its liquidity enhances substantially, the volatility will continue. So if Bitcoin is quite ineffective as a real currency, what are its applications? Numerous think Bitcoin has actually carried on from being a feasible type of payment to ending up being a shop of worth. Bitcoin resembles "digital gold" and will merely be utilized as a standard for other cryptocurrencies and blockchain tasks to be determined versus and traded for. Just recently there have actually been stories of individuals in high inflation nations such as Zimbabwe purchasing Bitcoin in order to hang on to what wealth they have instead of see its worth decrease under the recklessness of its main banking system. Is it far too late to get associated with Bitcoin? If you think in what these cryptocurrencies will provide for the world then it is never ever far too late to get included, however we recommend you look into crypto market scanners as they will provide you the best insight.. You may be much better off taking a look at Litecoin, up 6706% for the year or Ethereum which is up an amazing 7421% for the year. These more recent, quicker currencies wish to accomplish what Bitcoin initially set out to do back in its creation in 2009 and change federal government run fiat currencies. Who understands what the rate of these currencies will be 10, fifteen or perhaps twenty years from now? Something is specific though, we much better strap ourselves in as it is going to be a wild flight.
Chinas ICO bans - what befalls the world of cryptocurrencies?
The greatest occasion in the cryptocurrency world just recently was the statement of the Chinese authorities to close down the exchanges on which cryptocurrencies are traded. As an outcome, BTCChina, among the biggest bitcoin exchanges in China, stated that it would be stopping trading activities by the end of September. This news catalysed a sharp sell-off that left bitcoin (and other currencies such as ripple) dropping roughly 30% listed below the record highs that were reached previously this month. So, the cryptocurrency rollercoaster continues. With bitcoin having boosts that go beyond quadrupled worths from December 2016 to September 2017, some experts anticipate that it can cryptocurrencies can recuperate from the current falls. Josh Mahoney, a market expert at IG remarks that cryptocurrencies' "previous experience informs us that [they] will likely brush these most current obstacles aside". Nevertheless, these beliefs do not come without opposition. Mr Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said that bitcoin "isn't going to work" which it "is a scams ... even worse than tulip bulbs (in recommendation to the Dutch 'tulip mania' of the 17th century, identified as the world's very first speculative bubble)... that will explode". He goes to the degree of stating that he would fire staff members who were silly sufficient to sell bitcoin. Speculation aside, what is really going on? Given that China's ICO restriction, other world-leading economies are taking a fresh appearance into how the cryptocurrency world need to/ can be controlled in their areas. Instead of prohibiting ICOs, other nations still identify the technological advantages of crypto-technology, and are checking out managing the marketplace without entirely suppressing the development of the currencies. The huge problem for these economies is to determine how to do this, as the alternative nature of the cryptocurrencies do not enable them to be categorized under the policies of conventional financial investment properties. A few of these nations consist of Japan, Singapore and the United States. These economies look for to develop accounting requirements for cryptocurrencies, generally in order to manage cash laundering and scams, which have actually been rendered more evasive due to the crypto-technology. Yet, the majority of regulators do identify that there appears to be no genuine advantage to entirely prohibiting cryptocurrencies due to the financial circulations that they bring along. Likewise, most likely since it is almost difficult to close down the crypto-world for as long as the web exists. Regulators can just concentrate on locations where they might have the ability to work out some control, which appears to be where cryptocurrencies satisfy fiat currencies (i.e. the cryptocurrency exchanges). While cryptocurrencies appear to come under more analysis as time advances, such occasions do benefit some nations like Hong Kong. Given That the Chinese ICO restriction, lots of creators of cryptocurrency tasks have actually been driven from the mainland to the city. Aurelian Menant, CEO of Gatecoin, stated that the business got "a high variety of questions from blockchain job creators based in the mainland" which there has actually been an observable rise in the variety of Chinese customers signing up on the platform. Looking a little even more, business like Nvidia have actually revealed positivity from the occasion. They declare that this ICO restriction will just sustain their GPU sales, as the restriction will likely increase the need for cryptocurrency-related GPUs. With the restriction, the only method to acquire cryptocurrencies mined with GPUs is to mine them with calculating power. As such, people aiming to get cryptocurrencies in China now need to get more computing power, rather than making straight purchases through exchanges. In essence, Nvidia's beliefs is that this isn't a downhill spiral for cryptocurrencies; in truth, other markets will get an increase also. Due to all the turmoil and dispute surrounding cryptocurrencies, the combination of the innovation into the worldwide economies appear to be materialising quickly. Whether you think in the future of the innovation, or believe that it is a "scams ... that will explode", the cryptocurrency rollercoaster is one worth your attention.
Everything is going to go full parabolic next year. Trade carefully.
Greetings fellow XMR traders! 2017 has been a mindboggling year for Monero, and all of cryptocurrency in general. I know there are other cryptos that have had far better YTD returns (ETH, DASH, XRP), but it's really hard to ignore the fact that XMR is up over 2600% since the beginning of the year. Not surprisingly, the mainstream media has not ignored these insane gains. Turn on CNBC or Bloomberg and they cannot shut up about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole. Marketwatch recently made their own crypto-specific category on their own website, and they also list Monero as one of the cryptos to watch for in 2018. Google trends for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency have skyrocketed. You get the idea, cryptocurrency is in the limelight. It wasn't like this a year ago, at least when I first started buying XMR a few months after the AlphaBay pump in 2016. Recently, the total market cap has exploded in the past month, going well past over half a trillion dollars as of the time of this post. I don't think it's a coincidence that the market cap started going crazy around the time of Thanksgiving. In my anecdotal experience, our Thanksgiving with my familiy was almost entirely dominated by crypto talk (which I'm ok with, there was no talk about politics this year!). My family knows I'm into crypto, and they no longer think I'm the crazy nerdy guy for investing in it. They've watched the news and seen the gains BTC and other alts have had. They're starting to want a piece of that action. After Thanksgiving, one of my family members opened a Coinbase account and bought 1 LTC because, "I like owning whole coins". I'm sure something similar to the aforementioned anecdote occurred around many Thanksgiving dinners. It would also explain why LTC pumped like crazy recently -- there is a real psychological factor to wanting to own a whole piece of something instead of just a fraction of a BTC. A similar thing could happen with XMR if it gets listed on Coinbase (and Ripple too, if the rumors are true). It's starting to become expensive for most folks to buy 1 XMR, but it's still not completely out of reach compared to buying 1 BTC or even 1 ETH. I expect the same thing to repeat come Christmas. I will be setting up Coinbase accounts and/or wallets for no fewer than half a dozen family members this Christmas. I'm sure there will be many hardware wallets bought as gifts this holiday season. This is no longer a domain that is ruled by technogeeks and anarcho-capitalists. Cryptocurrency is entering the mainstream world, and the recent market cap explosion reflects that. This is where things start to get really dicey. Those several people I'm going to be setting up Coinbase accounts for? Most of them are not very technologically adept. They only want into cryptocurrency because they see the returns. It's a classic example of FOMO. This is going to accelerate to a fever pitch come 2018. There will be a massive stampeding to the entrance to get into cryptocurrency as individuals and institutions FOMO their way in. If you told me months ago that the total market cap for crypto would be roughly $600 billion by this point, I would have said you were on drugs. But it's a reality though. And this huge growth is going to set the stage for 2018. I fully expect the total market cap to be in the several trillions of dollars by the middle of next year. We will be a part of that explosion of course. I do not think it is out of the question for XMR to be well over $1000 by Q1 2018. I thought $1000 by 2018 was going to be a wash, but given what has happened in the past month, that timetable has sped up considerably. Even multiple thousands of dollars doesn't seem too farfetched. Barring a sudden disastrous event that halts this bull run, we are going to keep climbing and pumping. The fact that more and more people are sinking their life savings/taking out second mortgages into crypto now really worries me, and this is only going to get worse once things go full parabolic. There are a lot of people out there stuck in misery financially. They are working low paying jobs, barely getting raises, and whatever raises they do get are immediately nullified by expenses continuing to balloon out of control. Saving accounts have been ZIRPed by central banks. The stock market has massively overheated from all of the money printed by central banks, largely benefiting the wealthy. There are more and more economic dead zones that pop up as human capital and wealth continue to concentrate in large metropolitan areas. A lot of people in the West are being permanently left behind, and for them something like Bitcoin is their final chance at getting out of financial hell. These people see crypto as a get-rich-quick scheme, and not for the technology of the blockchain that shapes to change the world. Which to me is sad people see it like this, but again that is how things are going. For me, I believe that the blockchain is one of the greatest inventions to have come about in the past several hundred years. This article here does a fantastic job of explaining why the blockchain is a gamechanger for civilization. No matter what happens moving forward, the blockchain is here to stay. However, this doesn't change the fact that there is a ton of garbage in the crypto markets that is horrendously overvalued. Some people think of cryptocurrency as the modern day tulip mania, but it's a lot closer to the dot-com bubble. Just like with crypto, it was impossible not to lose money investing in dot-coms. And there was a lot of garbage like Pets.com that was clearly overvalued and went to zero after the bubble burst. The companies that did survive eventually went on to dominate today's society, like Amazon. I do see a bubble exploding soon, but obviously it is impossible to say when. The shitcoins will die out for good, and the coins that are truly legitimate will eventually recover and go on to do great things. Obviously I expect XMR to be one of the survivors. What we have seen right now is just a taste of what is to come. The crypto markets will soon experience what will be the equivalent of an enormous shot of heroin right into its system. There will be so much money being thrown at crypto looking for the "next Bitcoin". This is where I now talk about exit strategies. As rule #11 says, trading requires selling at some point. I have been seriously contemplating on cashing out a lot of my portfolio some time next year. When exactly that will happen is still up in the air, but if things keep going like I expect it to, it will be in 2018. There are some things that legitimately scare me and can cause an epic crash. It could be an exchange getting hacked. It could be a bad smart contract that causes another DAO disaster (hey, maybe Vitalik will roll that back too just like last time!) Or it could be Tether. If you're not familiar with Tether, take the time to Google and read about it. It's basically tokens created from nothing that have been used to pump the price of BTC on Bitfinex. The possibility of Tethers imploding is very real, and combined with how Bitfinex has severed ties with banks and stopped servicing US customers... it is asking for trouble. I will continue to HODL onto an unknown amount of Monero, but I also want to protect my wealth in the process and as such I will almost certainly be selling an unknown amount of Monero too. If it means I sell too early because I didn't perfectly predict the top, so be it. Fortunes WILL be made and lost in the next 365 days. Trade very, very carefully. -- surgingchaos
I've personally experienced the 1987 stock market crash, the dot-com bubble, the 2008 bear market, and the Mt. Gox rocket up and down in 2013. This makes me too old to be cool. But it also means that I've been around long enough to be puzzled by how markets work and don't (!) work. While ethtrader is a fantastic source of news, the fact of the matter is that news is not the best source of wisdom. Wisdom, unfortunately, requires the hard work of learning and introspection which is really, really hard to accomplish during the adrenaline rush of the bull market in ether that we've been having. So, for those of you who want to broaden your perspective and gain a deeper understanding of the market I'd like to recommend the five books that have best helped me understand trading markets: (1) Devil Take the Hindmost: A History by Edward Chancellor. Why? When bitcoin was new, the bitcoin reddit was flooded with accusations that it was just tulip mania all over again. Yet very few people actually understand what caused the market for tulips to go crazy (like ether) in the Netherlands. What made tulips go to the moon and come crashing back to earth? This along with other manias is covered in this super interesting book. (2) When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein. These guys had multiple Nobel prize winners! They were invincible! Yet they totally crashed and burned? WTF happened? Can it happen again in crypto where there are also lots of amazingly smart people? What are the underlying risks to watch for? (3) Money: The Unauthorized Biography--From Coinage to Cryptocurrencies by Felix Martin. So, we're all talking about getting out of "fiat" money and into "cryptocurrency". What exactly are we getting out of and into? What is money? Honestly, this is one of the most interesting books I've read in the past five years. (4) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip A. Fisher. You may think that cryptocurrency is completely new, but even if it is you are trying to do something very old: make money for yourself. How do you know what to buy, when to buy, when to sell, how to judge if you've bought the right thing? This is a small(er) book in the investment field. But it's one of the best if you want to maximize your chances of getting to the point where you need to decide what color Lambo to buy. (5) Berkshire Hathaway Letters to Shareholders by Warren Buffett (paperback version). Sitting at a desk without a computer and just using his brain, Buffett has become the second wealthiest person in the world. Here, Warren drops serious knowledge. I think there's more wisdom and trading smarts to be gleaned here than from a full MBA course. Also, I'd like to invite you to recommend your favorites to me. Although I'm getting the recommendations started, I'm no Warren Buffett or George Soros. I'd like to continue learning and -- just maybe -- get a bit smarter.
Hotwire is claimed to be paid in Bitcoin, the transaction id was never revealed,
Then the australian police raided his house for tax fraud. Craig Wright claims his supercomputer Tulip is located in Iceland outside Australian jurisdiction, allegedly for electricity being cheaper. Craig Wright is now trying to prove to the tax authority that his expenses were done through his holding that inherited satoshi’s bitcoin. As you can read in the document, Craig Wright is authorized to ask for loan backed by satoshi's coins from the holding for developing bitcoin’s value, and he is claiming that this money is what is being used for paying the expenses which would justify his 54 millions subsidy. Now Craig Wright is using the 54 million of dollars he received to prove he, or his brother, is satoshi instead of just proving ownership of his bitcoin holding which served the fake expenses. He started by making sure some respected authority in the bitcoin industry will vouch for him. Then tried to reach media coverage as proof that he is satoshi. Craig is currently using his 54 million subsidy to find way to make the tax authority to believe his story. Maybe he already reached his goal, with 54 million dollars, he can easily corrupt the tax officer, the tax officer who can now cover his ass by pointing out that some “bitcoin experts” testified him being satoshi. (plausible deniability) Until now:
There is no proof of him having a supercomputer, nor having worked for Bitcoin (as his claim of testing 340 GB blocks)
No cryptographic proof that he holds the bitcoin supposedly in the trust,
So I have been spending the last few weeks/ 2 months building my understanding around the technology involved in crypto. LTC has always been my favorite because I was able to own a full coin and I think the idea of pairing with bitcoin rather than challenging it is much more sensible. I am currently fairly close to deciding to go all-in, by which I mean buying a Ledger Nano S and holding all my excess funds in LTC. However I have some growing concerns about the state of crypto which is making me more and more hesitant to get more involved. There is way too much evidence to suggest that what is going on now is an economic bubble. I have been reading up on the dot-com bubble and I am seeing way too many parallels.
"As a result of the rapidly-increasing usage of the Internet, many investors were eager to invest, at any valuation, in any company that had one of the Internet-related prefixes or a ".com" suffix in its name, leading to a stock market bubble. During the bubble, the valuations of companies in the quaternary sector of the economy increased rapidly. Venture capitalists, eager to profit on this investment demand, moved to raise and invest capital faster and with less caution than usual. A combination of rapidly increasing stock prices, market confidence that the companies would turn future profits, speculation in stocks by individuals, and widely available venture capital created an environment in which many investors were willing to overlook traditional metrics, such as the price–earnings ratio, in favor of basing confidence on technological advancements."
That is from Wikipedia about the dot-com bubble and all I am seeing recently is adverts for new coins / new technologies / btc killers etc. On these subs and other places there are people with no technological backgrounds speculating on valuations quoting nothing more than buzz-words which in reality many of them do not understand. There are way too many alt-coins springing up claiming to do all sorts of things and people are all backing them. The current state of Ethereum worries me massively, I know way to many people speculating on ethereum with absolutely no understanding of smart-contracts. The stability of the price in this market is suspicious to say the least. Does anyone else feel like there is a huge amount of price manipulation going on? Recent events should definitely be meriting some shifts but there is really nothing happening, past the huge surge which peaked everyone's interest in the coin this year. We have entire weeks where you can watch the price hit a wall and fall by 2-3% over and over, who is causing this and what is to say that we really have any control? A point my brother brought up recently was that rather than banks controlling things we end up with miners doing it and given how specialized the hardware is becoming it is harder for the average user to get involved. In a distant future with crypto genuinely replacing fiat, what is to stop the people with money simply mass producing hardware and steering change to benefit them? for bitcoin blocks mined by "Other" is already as low as 5%. I understand that we have Coblee to steer things but you better believe that miners wouldn't support their server farms suddenly having more competition purely for fairness. (also yes I know that there are alt-coins which have ways around this) Many people here also saying that we should be spending litecoin rather than holding, is everyone simply expecting the mentally to suddenly turn on its head to achieve this when 99.9% of people involved in cryptos are here to simply hold and hope for profits? How can you ever actually profit when the mentality will always be "HODL" (I hate that term, this meme needs to die). This post isnt FUD (another term I absolutely hate), I genuinely am looking for more solid answers to base an educated decision on. Lightning and MAST are all well and good but its all speculation, it will always just be speculation. I dont like gambling when the odds are against me. Also I would urge anyone who hasnt to learn about the dot-com bubble and tulip-mania, as well as ofc the underlying technology involved in blockchain.
A talk about Financial Risk and Bubble trend. Hope it is useful to someone. Warning[long read]
Firstly a little background about me spring 2018 I will be graduating with a bachelor degree in Finance, I have invested in the stock market for 4 years now. My interest, hobby, and education I would fairly say that I know more than the average man on the field of finance. In 2011 I started mining bitcoins, due to just seeing it on 4Chan I believe? I was young and did not understand a shit about what I was doing. However after mining 2 BTC I just meh... A couple of years go by the hype comes and hit global news coverage. And we see huge price increases, my first reaction was too much risk for my taste, fair enough.
THEN old friends start messaging me about bitcoin,lightcoin,etherum and what not, Simply because I was the investing geek back in high school. I recommended they should not invest because of the risk associated with it and they could not afford to lose it. Of course I couldn't have been more wrong, but still, some part of me cant grasp the underlying value of bitcoin.
As an investor with a finance background, certain things just screams red flag for me. And just so we all are on the same plan returns works in a fantastic way, higher returns just compensate for the risk, finance 101. 1) I am a member of a certified investor group in some way you could call "experts", they have been trading and investing their whole life. NONE of them have touched cryptocurrency because of the risk and BUBBLE trends we are seeing. that made me a skeptic.
2) Tons of "common" people talk about getting rich, investing in crypto. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH at the same time experts in finance says KEEP THE FUCK AWAY. Example
3) Looking at Reddit/facebook forums makes me just baffled, people, talking about 1MIOTAS going to 1000$ like how in the fucking math. Just some simple here if we where to reach half of the market cap of bitcoin ( that is already crazy high) that is $182 771 118 802 /2 = $ 91,385,559,401 we get: 2,779,530,283 MIOTAS times ish $30 = $83,385908,490 probably $33. I think that proves my point.
4) People that should not invest, are investing.
Further, on let's say some criteria for BUBBLE trends that are based on history Definition:* An economic bubble or asset bubble (sometimes also referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania, or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value. It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.* Source
5 steps of a bubble (Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, profit, and panic) Displacement: A displacement occurs when investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology or interest rates that are historically low. Check Boom: Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market, setting the stage for the boom phase. During this phase, the asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of participants into the fold. Ultra check
Euphoria: During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. The "greater fool" theory plays out everywhere. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase. Ongoing right now
Profit Taking: By this time, the smart money – heeding the warning signs – is generally selling out positions and taking profits. But estimating the exact time when a bubble is due to collapse can be a difficult exercise and extremely hazardous to one's financial health, because, as John Maynard Keynes put it, "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Note that it only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot "inflate" again. Yet to start
Panic: In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. Investors and speculators, faced with margin calls and plunging values of their holdings, now want to liquidate them at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply. Yet to start Source And there is so much more theory on this field, but my checklist is checked out.
I love everything behind IOTA and the technology, there is a limit to how much I can understand. But I can grasp the major differences between IOTA and bitcoin as such. I am myself invested in IOTA but that's mainly because I believe that I can be wrong, I would say that it is naive to conclude this is a bubble. So I have a put a portion I can afford to lose and that's it, and I am well aware of the risk. But my point here is that so many others are NOT. Humans learn slow and keep making the same mistakes, few people manage to earn money from crises. As a fun fact, financial crises occur every 8-10 year, our last one would be the financial crisis in 2008. Source My conclusion from this: DONT PUT YOUR SAVINGS IN CRYPTO if you cant afford to lose it get the hell away. There has been too much crisis based on tulips, real estate, fake companies and the list goes long. This post was made because I feel there is much hype and not so much reality, people live different lives and struggle more with money than others. So please warn accordingly, don't hype things you don't know jack shit about in reality. Peace Fellow Iota members, sorry for the long read.
Don't buy into this rally. Just a warning. Explanation inside. (/Bitcoin/ banned me for posting this)
90% of people are still 90% down. This market is not going anywhere, anytime soon. Before you downvote me.... just for angst or hope against getting your money back. Hear me out. I made 500% gains in January. Got out. Warned everyone. Tether. Manipulation. I'll buy when the stops are broken and Eth flash crashes to $0.10 again You have to consider. It's now September. Last November 2017, Roger Ver was calling for BCH to replace BTC within 6 months. Everyone's prospect about this market has been blinding and extreme, and for the most part upside down/misguided. When its 9 months into 2018, and were every bi-weekly up/down 30% its unjustified for the current centralized system, to invest in a speculative asset that is becoming increasingly more volatile every month. We should be seeing less volatility. The chances now, of ETF's ever happening become presumibly worse. It's dangerous for regulators to also at this point announce an ETF, just for the simple nature that it will create another positive feedback bubble loop. I don't know where some of you guys find the extra money under the cushions and couches... to catch what is essentially a falling knife. God speed to you if Eth is $1000 next year... but... The technicals are so manipulated, flawed, incoherent. RSI, MACD, Bolingers, near meaningless, and that's whats scaring away everyone. We've only had 10 years of track history in crypto, so Im hesitant in treating the system with accurate technicals. The stock market indices have a track history of 100+ years. After time and stability, measurements, certain indicators were introduced. Bollinger Bands, etc. Do these measurements aid in predicting where BTC or your favorite coin is going? In my opinion, no. Now, its MOMO, Social Media, and #Yacht. Long term, sure... were still up... or anyone that bought in prior to 2017 basically. So, I guess the moving average, over 10 years - is an okay indicator, but wait.... When AMD announced earnings a few weeks ago - they made a bold statement stating their 3rd/4th quarter revenue on GPU's for crypto would be near zero. Which is a very very bearish stance. These huge price swings are freaking everyone out. Im not gonna use the "T" word yet..... as is the political climate -- and most politicians simply won't come out and say.... Tulip Mania. The Dutch East India Company was the largest company of its time, valued at $7.1 adjusted for inflation. All because of... spice... opium... and most of all a bubble in tulips. I'm more inclinced to study a bubble right now, so much so than the individual coins. But, the system as a whole intrigues me. Regardless if it goes up or down. It's already been concluded that Tether was behind December's bubble. Academics have already proven this. It's pretty settled, like climate science. Going forward, with that conclusion in mind, put yourself in SEC regulators shoes now. There are too many questions, with not enough answers. There is no transparency. The exchanges, and the transfer of USDT is causing havoc in the system. If Bitfinex is the biggest exhcange in the world by volume, and they've basically had zero banking/shady banking since April of 2017, until "the largest exchange in the world" is put in its place - I honestly just have a fatalistic viewpoint on crypto. Coinbene pulled off the same trickery. Can you explain the BitForex volume on this picture? This is now. How would one explain this to SEC regulators? https://imgur.com/a/SsNQjFW The majority of the members in this group are going to be long term bullish on cryptocurrency. I cant untangle that or the get quick rich mentality. The goal is to make money, but also to have discussion; on the flaws of the current marketplace. There are no assurances it will go up. This isn't the stock market. This isn't even OTC assets. Not saying Bitcoin or Crypto overall will go to zero. I'm only trying to ascertain my perspective, and pass it onto some of the more bullish investors. I have money in, but more or less sitting on sidelines with majority posted gains. I want to atleast share the other side of the mirror. Unlike previous, crashes, corrections, there are certainly more variables. In the old days, you didn't have this number of alt coins. You didn't have the type of manipulation, social media advocates (Dennis Rodman; Potcoin; John McCafe). You didn't have Tether. You didn't have exchanges locked out by banks. Or government regulations, or China saying no. You definately had exchanges collapse. Back then, people still looked at Bitcoin as a growth opportunities and this futurisitic way of paying for goods. When China backed out, it changed my perception of the future. Also, everyone thought the transfer of Bitcoin would be free. Turned out, thats a big fat lie. That's why the system was basically built. The banks and governments have crypto by the balls. And when MJ is legalized in the USA, all the PotCoin whales are just going to dump via Eth. (Joking). The only winners right now, are the exchanges (and circa this post Dogecoin). I still have not seen or heard of any winners in the decentralized era. AuraDao was supposed to be that. It's not. Anyways, Vitalik B. was quoted the other day as saying we'll never see the 1000x folds again in our lifetime. Meaning, if we invest today in 60 years we won't be Warren Buffet Jr. I think the overall sentiment is, (Im just speaking for the majority of people) is, people saw a technology. Then saw how the technology was exploited. In an unregulated environement. The sentinment is, unregulated currencies are fatally flawed. So, while they might stick around I think Dec 2017 was a one time only. Bitcoin rose to fame like Rhonda Rhousey. Then she lost. Sure, shes still around.. I guess. :P ~$6200'ish is the break even point for mining BTC profitably (across generational AntMiners). Just thought I'd throw that tidbit out there. You might see some strange 'floors' and 'supports' that look unnatural in the coming days. At thats the bottom line, cause Stone Cold said so. *Glass breaks*
It's time to face reality in 2017 Bitcoin is not the currency of the future We need to stop listening to self-proclaimed experts and hack economists who say Bitcoin will change the world The Bitcoin experiment has finally been resolved. Everybody was wrong: Bitcoin is dead. Mike Hearn said ‘farewell to Bitcoin’ and took a job with Goldman Sachs because he thought ‘Bitcoin is just an experiment.’ Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire says nobody will be using Bitcoin in 5 years because It’s still early days. Something better will come along and replace it. People were wrong when they said Bitcoin will bring reliable self-banking to the unbanked in third world countries. Smart people understand that Bitcoin challenges central banking and undermines the ability of governments to keep financial tabs on their citizens. In order to fight terrorism, the government tracks everything you do online. Personally, I’m tired of living in a world where Hackers, drug dealers and terrorists can use Bitcoin to get away with their crimes. It’s actually just a myth that Bitcoin is good for the world. That’s dead wrong. You aren’t smart enough to use Bitcoin; it will never be adopted by the masses. Economists like Paul Krugman keep saying Bitcoin is evil. I don’t believe that Bitcoin can make the world a better place by empowering people. All you can do with Bitcoin is buy drugs. And maybe a hitman. It just isn’t true that Bitcoin can be used for good as well as bad. It is true that Bitcoin is riddled with scams and crooks. Mt. Gox blew up, Ross Ulbricht went down. Hardly a day goes by without somebody getting hacked or handcuffed. We all know Bitcoin was born in sin. Charlie Stross wants Bitcoin to die in a fire. He says Bitcoin is evil. I’m tired of hearing that Bitcoin is actually close to mass adoption. The price of Bitcoin today is nearing an all-time high, but the Economist Magazine says it’s just a bubble – Like tulip mania. The smart money says The experiment is over – Bitcoin has failed. But wait – isn’t this all backwards?! Read the article in reverse: Only fools believe that [Original article by Dr. Michael Moriarty published at http://darknetmarkets.com/time-face-reality-2017/ . Dr. Michael Moriarty is the owner of https://TorWallet.com and one of the largest Bitcoin holders in the world.]
It seems the mania and hype have reached epic proportions. You see headlines like “bitcoin could reach 100,000”, “bitcoin going up over 1000%.” I even ran into someone the other day saying he invested because he knew someone who made over $100,000 investing in bitcoin. My thought was, yeh I knew a guy who made over $100,000 on a lottery ticket but that doesn’t make lottery tickets a good investment. As I kind of pride myself as a successful long term investor, my gut automatically tells me bitcoin is a bad investment. I decided to take a moment and put pen to paper to try and back up my initial instinct of why my gut tells me bitcoin is a bad investment. I will attempt to lay out the case why I predict bitcoin is actually worthless.
It has no utility - Ok, for something to have value it must be useful. You buy homes to utilize them, gold can be used for jewlry and electronics, stocks are ownership in companies producing goods and services people want to buy. Even non physical things like performance art and literature can have value because people enjoy them. I have heard the argument that none of this matters because bitcoin is like the US dollar or other fiat currency, and currency is a store of wealth backed by nothing of value. But their is a big difference. US dollars will always be worth something because you have to use them to pay taxes. Even if we were a completely barter economy, you would have to go out and exchange enough goods and services for US dollars to pay your taxes. See, the problem is that no one is buying bitcoin to use or enjoy it. They are only buying hopping some one might buy it from them for a higher price in the future.
It doesn’t produce income - Now there are intangible investments that have no physical utility or enjoyment use, but they are used to produce something with utility. A good example are instruments like bonds, futures, stock options, CDs and other “commercial paper.” These products have no physical utility for those who buy them, but they are a way to transfer resources to be used to produce something of utility. When you invest in a CD or bond or any other debt instrument someone’s taking that and investing it in future labor or production of something useful. For example if you buy a CD, the bank takes that money and loans it to someone who buys a truck or a home and then they pay back the debt with future productivity or labor giving that CD value. When you invest in a commercial paper instrument, it eventually finds its way into investing in something that purchases or produces something of value. If you invest in bitcoin even though it has some of the same attributes of an intangible investment it goes into no productive use.
It must also be scarce - Ok I know some of you are screaming saying it does have utility because you can use it to transfer money. But even if something has utility, it must also have a level of scarcity to be a store of wealth. For example the air we breath has enormous value too us. We would be willing to pay everything we have and all our future earnings for breathable air if we were trapped in a submarine under water. But here on land even though air is necessary to our very existence, it has no value because it is so abundant. Ok you might say there are only so many bitcoin so it is scarce. But bitcoin is really just a data set of block chain technology. This technology is open source meaning that is freely accessible to anyone. That’s why their are now thousands of new crypto currencies and more popping up every day. So saying bitcoin is scarce is like saying the air over Palm Beach is scarce so if we bottle it up it will be valuable, because there is only so much air over Palm Beach. Bitcoin is not scarce because it is no more useful than any other crypto currency, just like the air over Palm Beach is no more useful than the air you are breathing right now.
4.It is a bubble - Look throughout human history, something is a bubble when a majority of people buy it just hoping it goes up in value, and not as a user of the product. Speculation causes huge distortions in the market. I buy a car because it has value to me because I don’t have to walk to work, I buy homes because they provide me shelter safety and comfort. I buy an IPhone because it makes me more productive and entertained. We have seen it in houses, comic books, art, beanie babies, heck even tulip bulbs. Bubbles occur when the price is determined by speculation that something will go up in value and not for the utility or enjoyment it provides to the individual. If people really were just buying bitcoin for its utility to transfer money, then the market would provide an accurate price. A scuba diver pays to have his tanks filled with air even though the air is free. There is a cost to condense and transport that air and yes their is a small value in that, because it takes resources to build the infrastructure to move the air. But the guy who pays to have scuba tanks filled with air is not doing so hoping to sell it for more in the future. If the vast majority of bitcoin users were truly using it for its useful purpose the price would be accurately reflected. The problem is the vast majority of bitcoin investors don’t even really understand it let alone use it. I would argue most of the investors are buying just in the hopes someone will buy it from them at a higher price in the future, with no intention of using it to transfer money. Anyway I think it’s a good discussion to have so if disagree please tell me where you think I’m wrong.
Now that everything is on sale, what are the coins offering real value into the future?
I have seen these dips before, been following bitcoin since the price was three for a penny. I have no idea where the bottom of this crash is, or how long it will last but I know it will not last forever. Well maybe for bitconnect (BCC) it will last forever, but the good coins will survive and thrive. The tulip mania bubble burst hundreds of years ago but there is still good money to be made farming tulips, and some varieties are still very expensive. The dot com bubble burst years ago, but if you held on to Google or other quality dot com stocks you are sitting pretty today. There are many factors combining to make this perfect storm, stricter Chinese regulations on the way, US tax season, crash of the Bitconnect ponzi scheme, the Chinese new year, and the simple fact the markets always correct when there is a steep runup in prices over a short period of time as people take profits. But usually there is an over-correction as fear takes hold as the market drops and people panic. Are we in over correction territory now? Maybe. They say time in market beats timing the market, but sometimes you get these moments where timing the market is easy. Now is a good time to buy quality coin. Tomorrow or the next day, or next week or next year may be better, but now is good. China has always stiffled innovation, but they are not the center of the world. Their crushing of cryptos may last a while, maybe even a year or more, but the world go on without them, and eventually they will have to come back to embrace cryptos. I am still holding on for dear life to Ethereum, Monero, Iota, Ripple and Dash, and I like certain others I have known of for a long time like Litecoin, I even like Bitcoin because of the relative liquidity it has at this time, but there are so many new coins I do not know, and I can't research them all, so I am looking for advice on which coins to look at for future value, especially innovative coins that have real world applications. What are your favorites now?
1) Imagine watching your worst frenemy get promoted to a great job despite being complete useless garbage and now imagine that your worst frenemy is bitcoin and you are imagining my life for the last 4 years 2) the bubble is never going to pop because speculation works like that and yet it will remain useless, no justice no peace 3) please do not buy bitcoin because i predicted the bubble won’t pop. I don’t believe it will drop below a certain floor, i do believe you are going to get screwed 4) Also like can we stop talking about tulips, the modern historical consensus on tulip mania tends towards skeptical and also at least you got a tulip at the end of the day
I do not know how well she understands the technology behind Bitcoin, but I do agree with a very small part of what she said. The speculators are scary, and so is their resiliency to hearing terrible news. For example, I think about verified scams such as Bitconnect, and I think of projects that have been hacked such as Verge and Bitcoin Gold and others. Despite the revelation that certain projects are great security risks, the market speculation is not so fazed. My questions for this discussion are specifically about the dangers of speculation in cryptocurrency combined with the average level of ignorance about the technology. What do you think the future holds for the speculators? How do those thoughts influence how you deal with speculators that you come across (strangers or perhaps friends/family)? Can you think of any relevant examples of past speculative investing that you feel the cryptocurrency market is mirroring? Sarah mentions the infamous tulips example. Rather than discussing that one, can you think of one you think is legitimate and why do you think so?
Too Many Passwords - The Strings Of Digitalization
Remember those 1980s SCI-FI movies where the action takes place in 2020 and they show a world full of flying cars, holographic advertisements and people with robotic limbs? Well, it’s almost 2020 and we still don’t get to look out the window and see all those things, instead the changes in our society are taking place beneath the surface, in a more toned down manner. It’s all about how money and information moves, how blockchain implementation changes the way we look at everyday tasks. Have you ever wondered how blockchain can potentially transform a city? Gradual Implementation Blockchain as we know it has been around since 2008 when Bitcoin was created by the infamous and elusive Nakamoto, but it took almost 10 years for the technology to gain massive popularity and interest. To be more precise, 2017 was the year when the Digital Gold Rush began, Bitcoin and altcoins skyrocketed and all types of ICOs hit the market. From $1,000 to almost $20,000 and from $10 to almost $1,400! That’s how much the first 2 cryptocurrencies (by market cap) moved during 2017 and very early 2018. Some say “the bubble has burst” but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Indeed, as I am writing this, most coins are down compared to late 2017, but they are still way up if you look at early 2017 prices and besides, a market cannot be gauged by the success or failure demonstrated over 1 year. Also, we shouldn’t overlook one thing: the performance of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies shouldn’t be directly associated with the success of blockchain technology because the latter is what can really transform our lives and the cities we live in. Market speculation — buy low, sell high — can be a good source of income if you do it right but real life application of blockchain is the true benefit. Calling Bitcoin, altcoins or the blockchain a bubble is madness, it’s just like calling the internet a bubble back in the day. Let me tell you about a real bubble: Tulip Mania that started in early 17thcentury in what is now known as The Netherlands. Without dwelling too much into the details, I will simply tell you that some single tulip bulbs were worth more than 10 times the yearly salary of a skilled craftsman. One bulb! Fortunes were made and lost and it all came crushing down in early 1637 when nobody wanted to buy the flower anymore. The main difference between tulips and blockchain is that with the former, when the speculative incentive is gone, all you’re left with is a beautiful and very expensive flower that nobody wants to buy. Blockchain on the other hand has countless applications across finance, media, healthcare logistics and many others, which are not tied to the price of any cryptocurrency. As the tech becomes more widespread, these uses will become more apparent in everyday life and will gradually transform the cities we live in. New Payment Methods. Mainstream Adoption Soon? Many online retailers have already tested cryptocurrency payments and this trend is even present among offline shops. A few online names include Steam (well-known gaming platform), Microsoft, Overstock and Shopify, while offline vendors include KFC Canada, Subway and others. Not to mention there are about 2,200 Bitcoin ATMs in the United States alone at the time of writing. All this means that the world is beginning to adopt blockchain as a form of payment and that more and more retailers will follow. We can even see changes in the banking system and the way international payments are made. For example, Ripple is actively working with banks and trying to expedite cross border payments as well as greatly reduce transaction costs. One of their partners, Banco Santander has even launched a mobile application for cross border payments powered by RippleNet, allowing to do in just a few clicks what would have taken a long time in the past. It’s evident that big changes are coming. Maybe not today, not tomorrow, but soon the old ways will become obsolete, just how landline phones or dial-up internet have. I don’t know when flying cars will become a thing but blockchain tech will soon become a lot more noticeable. Too Many Passwords — The Strings Of Digitalization Our lives are already dependant on social media, streaming services, online payments and we generally rely on online accounts to define our online personality or to buy stuff. Everywhere you look there’s a “Log In” box and a password you have to remember and type in. If we expect blockchain to take a more prominent role, that means we will be inundated with staggering amounts of passwords to remember. This begs the question: will we memorize all that information or rely on simple yet functional solutions like Infinitus (INF) to store and protect our online credentials? And since we’re talking about a future where almost everything revolves around blockchain tech and decentralized solutions, I believe it’s only normal that we adopt a blockchain powered dApp to take care of our sensitive information. Changes Are Coming! Are You ready? It is no longer a question of if, but when blockchain will see mass adoption. And when it happens will you be ready? And by “ready” I don’t mean having a load of Bitcoins or any other cryptocurrency, but knowing how to use the new technology, how to make the best of its real world applications and more importantly, how to protect your online persona together with your crypto assets. The answer is simple: use a blockchain solution for a blockchain problem and store your private keys with INF — The Smart Designation Repository.
Some good comments I found on the internet: "As long as people don't understand the Bitcoin system the spread fear will always cause dumps. Tulip and Bitcoin lol. Even compared to 2009 or the dot.com bubble there are many differences to Bitcoin. But the most important difference to understand is the following: The very definition of a bubble in the sense of bankers and "experts" is that a price rises without an appropriate countervalue. This happened with the tulip mania (flowers!), dot.com bubble (fomo in companies without any working products) and the housing bubble (granted credits without an countervalue -> to keep it simple). So what’s about Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin has an countervalue and this value rises steadily. Its the cost to mine one. Every generated Bitcoin costs a significant amount of fiat money which represents its countervalue. - By the way to wipe out the argument "Bitcoin, as a digital currency is, is nothing worth is utter bullshit". A number printed on paper is worth nothing if you see it like that. Bitcoin is here to stay. It’s worth something. The market cap is very high because of demand, yes. This demand is mostly caused by fomo at the moment, yes. But Bitcoin has a significant countervalue and is built on a system which manages itself and is not controlled by a corporation with greedy managers who make money on the back of others. The market decides whats going on. Bitcoin has been arround for over 10 years. This is nothing compared to tulip bulbs. Lmfao this is hilarious, more like digital gold. This comparision is stupid. Tulips are easy to grow. They could make a tulip for everyone that’s what crashed the market. There are 21 million Bitcoins forever. That’s it. Bitcoin could be more valuable than gold. We don’t know how much gold there is in the ground, but there are21 million Bitcoins and everyone is gonna want a piece of that. Bitcoin is a store of value, a tulip is a flower. The ‘Bitcoin Bubble’ is often compared to the tulip bubble that started in 1636 and rose over 6000% in a number of years. The tulip bubble was when tulips were brought into Holland from Turkey and the Dutch loved the novelty of this new, rare flower. As different colours and patterns of this flower emerged into the Dutch market, it became a fashion statement to own such rare flowers. In simple economic terms, the rarity of the flower (supply) was significantly over-weighed by the demand of the Dutch society, and let to the point where people were selling their houses, land and life savings for a flower! Why would they do such a thing? Because they believed that the tulip price would forever rise. The fear of missing out on a potential profit lead the whole nation into believing that a flower was worth more than a house. Many people argue that this is the case with Bitcoin, I strongly disagree with this comparison because Bitcoin and all the other cryptocurrencies use blockchain technology that will revolutionise the way we live. Blockchain technology is not a fashion statement. It is global in scale and once implemented will provides tremendous value to society. Just like the internet did when it was introduced. They are already doing it. They know there will only be 21 million Bitcoins. Unlike their FIAT which is printed at will and the central bankers can go negative or do a Crypress and do a bail in. Decentralized money is the future. Hate all you want. I don't care I will lost my ass on bitcoin as I have the past 5 years :). Its users are investors until its hits critical mass then the daily swings will be less volatile and it will function with moderate price swings. At 1% adoption rates this is basically the internet in 1996. 70 million accounts and coinbase alone is addding 500,000 a week. All the Bitcoin HODLers haven't sold they have went out and educated the masses about it the past 5 years. We are at the beginning of the biggest wealth transfer in history as the paper garbage central bankers print to infinity has an alternative. Absurd. Tulip bulbs are a good, Bitcoin is a currency. The more investors the higher the confidence and the less likely for value to drop. Isn't Fiat paper money the biggest bubble in history? Considering it's not backed by gold or any property and it can be printed. I would say Bitcoin is Fiat currency 2.0 the only difference is that Bitcoin can't ever become a bigger bubble than paper money due to its limited supply of coins. My point is that both Bitcoin and Fiat currency is fake money. If you think Fiat currency is real than I have a bridge I want to sell you. In terms of fake money, Bitcoin is better because there is a limited supply. Ask people in Venezuela how their paper money is working for them. They learned the hard way, that's it's paper and a big bubble. I would take Bitcoin over Fiat any day of the week. Gold is the only real money that exists, there's a reason governments stake gold. The value is that it’s safe, limited, digital and that its decentralized. That is all it takes. I think it’s here to stay. Governments and their media hate it of course. The banks/fiat currency are the biggest bubble. How much money do "the people" of the world owe? $200+ trillion. That’s a huge bubble, but we allow the banks to continue with their BS. 200 trillion from interest (money from nowhere). The tulip analogy is a really bad example. Tulips are: A. Perishable. B. Non divisible. C. Not easily transported. Therefore they could never be classed as currency. 1-If internet goes down, BTC will be the least of your worries 2-If internet somehow gets shut down then banks will not be able to make payments. 3- And most important, there are alternatives to sending btc via internet that EXIST TODAY already. Bitcoin can be transmitted via satellite (https://futurism.com/bitcoin-now-comes-from-satellites-in-space-welcome-to-the-future/), via sms (http://gk2.sk/how-to-push-bitcoin-transactions-via-sms/) and there is even secure USB sticks with Bitcoin (coolest tech) (opendime.com). What is gold's intrinsic value? You make jewelry from it? For $1300 an ounce? How much would it dropped if it would only be used for jewelry, electronics, etc. and not store of value? I would say over 90%. But you are right, gold is backed by its properties, just like Bitcoin. What’s common with all bubbles it that the commodity has no real value. Tulips are flowers, real estate market was terribly overpriced, pyramidal schemes offer a stupid idea. Bitcoin is an invention, like railroad and electricity it provides a service of digital gold, but it's much more safe than gold and easy to transport. No one can print new Bitcoins. An no one can restrict it. Everybody looks at Bitcoin, nothing else. Whatever you do, don't look at Central Banks printing confetti or heaven forbid please please DO NOT look at the derivatives bubble. Derivatives are in essence just bets placed upon other bets by gamblers with little to no ethics or morality but this is so considered safe and legit by the establishment, lol."
What's Driving the Bitcoin Revolution: Why $100 worth of Bitcoin is worth more than 100 US Dollars
Those skeptical of bitcoin have a tendency to view it as analogous to certain historical currency manias. Just about every commodity you can think of has been used as money at some point, famously including the giant stone money of Yap island, and Dutch tulipomania. Tulipomania created economic-history's most famous case of a speculative bubble that went sour. Many, including my own brother, continue to paint bitcoin with the tulip-moniker. A speculative bubble occurs when an asset's price deviates from its intrinsic value. But because bitcoin is not a stock or a company, people seem to have trouble realizing why bitcoin should have any value at all, and that's what I want to focus on. The stunning fact is that $100 worth of bitcoin (0.699 BTC as of this writing) is worth more than $100 in any other fiat currency in the world. One way we know this is that people continue to pay fees between 1% - 4% to purchase bitcoin with fiat currencies. Thus, people would rather have $96 - $99 worth of bitcoin than $100 of fiat currency. The underlying reasons for this are bitcoin's killer features:
Lower Transaction Costs
This is the economic case for bitcoin, that because bitcoin transactions are irreversible and can be conducted at the cost of pennies, or even for free (if time is no object), regardless of the value being transferred, the result is that retailers find bitcoin extremely attractive--they can improve their profits by nearly the same percentage that they no longer pay Visa/MC/PayPal for payment processing and transaction insurance. I recently had someone argue that they didn't consider this a killer feature because they believed that Visa could simply lower their transaction fees to remain competitive. This person simply didn't get it. When Visa charges you ~$200 on a $10,000 transaction and a typical bitcoin transaction for the same amount costs $0.13 cents, there's not much room for Visa to lower fees and remain profitable, unless they want to fire 99% of their workforce, sell off every single one of their commercial properties, and abandon fraud protection and a hundred other things they do to remain profitable. Bitcoin defeats the credit card companies on a structural basis which constitutes a classic case of market disruption for which the companies being disrupted have no effective defense. Because of bitcoin's lower transaction costs, both buyer and retailer should receive and offer better deals of existing goods. At first, retailers will keep prices the same in dollar terms, just price them in bitcoin, and enjoy a significant profit advantage, which their competitors will have to replicate to compete, creating a virtuous cycle of bitcoin adoption among retailers. But, as retailers in general complete this adoption cycle and begin competing on a bitcoin-basis, they will lower their prices in bitcoin to reflect the lower transaction costs and consumers will begin to benefit directly. The value of bitcoin to humanity is directly tied to this feature of lower transaction costs which improves the marginal profitability of every single transaction it's used in, meaning in the end lower prices for consumers and raising everyone's standard of living. That's why bitcoin deserves a market cap of many trillions of dollars, because it has inherent financial advantages in its use, and everyone in the world could profit by using it, making everyone's lives better.
We live in an age where governments believe they have a right to take whatever amount of wages from you that they decide is fair, and to ban the ownership of drugs and weapons they (foolishly) decide they don't want you to own. Bitcoin offers an easy way to circumvent government payment-snooping and ethical gray-markets like Silk Road. But even if you, like me, have no interest in gray-market transactions, you can take financial privacy that your bank will not give you. By law banks must inform on you to the government, and chances are your purchases are crawled by government computers every single day. With bitcoin you can conduct as anonymous a transaction as currently possible, connecting to retailers via the TOR network, keeping wallets no one knows you own, etc., etc. Privacy in the bitcoin ecosystem is a topic worth of study to itself. What I still remember to this day are the words of certain German anarchs I'd met once whom refused to show their face in public anymore or give out their real name--they believe that privacy needed to be taken by each person, not merely expected of other people to give to them.
Perhaps bitcoin's more controversial feature is the expectation of continual deflation over time. Many don't understand how or why this works or what effect it would have on an economy, and some (Keynesians) even think it would harm an economy. Nothing could be further from the truth. Bitcoin will grow in value as more people begin to demand it as they learn of it. Some have accused bitcoin therefore of being little more than a speculative tulip-bubble. Frankly I would agree with them if it weren't for the fact of lower transaction costs. But it's also true that even without having the lowest transaction costs, bitcoin would probably still be able to survive as a currency in its own right simply from its deflationary policy. Even after everyone on earth knows about and even uses bitcoin, it would continue to deflate and gain in price as workers became more productive overall, generating more wealth, demanding more goods, and as the population of the planet grows so too will the value of bitcoin. This makes it good to hold bitcoin for future purposes, which encourages savings, which means people have bitcoin to invest when a really good opportunity comes around, which is how the modern world was built. Economies become rich the same way people do: by producing more than they consume (and saving it). All the people who say it's good to get rich by borrowing rather than saving ignore that without the savers there would be no one to borrow from. We are living in a period of historic value-gain that will not often be repeated, and by the time bitcoin's market cap reaches $100 billion would never occur again, so the people who worry about continual volatility should not worry. When bitcoin becomes the native unit of account, volatility (as measured in other currencies) becomes a non-issue.
Much Lower Existential Currency Risk
Much has been made of bitcoin's vulnerability to hackers and the like. But what of the risk of politicians hyperinflating a currency and destroying its value thereby, such as has happened in so many countries around the world. Bitcoin was founded with the idea of ending the necessity for 3rd party trust in a currency. There's no bitcoin central bank, no equivalent of Bernanke setting fiscal policy, no government controlling supply of bitcoin or abusing it to pump the market on an election year. Bitcoin replaces the existential risk of a fiat currency with the existential risk of a hacker, or of trusting the robustness of the bitcoin program. Of the two scenarios, I think it better to risk facing the hacker, because there are very good steps a person can take to be quite sure that a hacker cannot take their bitcoin, and with the advent of hardware wallets this won't even be a big concern anymore. And as for the robustness of the bitcoin program itself, trust in that can only build with time and use. I think the price increases starting in January are in part a reflection of growing confidence in bitcoin, that it had passed the first big test, the June '11 crash, that the block reward halving experience had proved that mining would continue despite the halving, and the recent blockchain fork showed how the network responds to an emergency bug. Now all we need is someone to attempt a 51% attack and find themselves almost immediately defeated and the stress test will be complete :P So when you tell someone about bitcoin, when you tell them about the massive uptake in users and the resulting price increase as a result of growing demand, they will imagine it a bubble, but remember to tell them the fact of lower transaction costs. It is the heart of bitcoin adoption. People want bitcoin because $100 worth of bitcoin is actually worth at least $135 (if you factor in future expected value increases via deflation and discount it to present value, and existing and expected inflation in fiat currencies, and lower overall transaction costs generally which make things cheaper to buy in bitcoin than in dollars). That figure could vary significantly from person to person depending on how fast they think bitcoin adoption will take place (if they do at all), how much they value personal privacy, etc., but this is why people are going to continue to prefer bitcoin over fiat, and move into it slowly but surely. If this is not a bubble, then it is the world waking up to the true valuation of bitcoin and slowly realizing that this idea is set to change the world. We live in a historic epoch, and finance will never be the same again.
EDIT: TL;DR: $100 worth of bitcoin is worth more than $100 worth of fiat currency because bitcoin will increase in value continually as opposed to fiat which will continually decrease in value, bitcoin can be made far more private than any other kind of online transaction, and because of lower transaction costs which will improve profit margins for businesses and increase purchasing power of buyers resulting in a higher standard of living for everyone and greater overall productivity in the economy. Also, you can more easily defend against hackers than against central bankers.
“Bitcoin is a sort of tulip,” Mr Constâncio said. Tulipmania, which erupted in the Netherlands in the 1600s, is often cited as one of the oldest examples of a financial bubble. Remembering Tulip Mania And The First Speculative Bubble Burst Tulipmania hasn’t only been compared to Bitcoin. It was also used to draw a comparison to the Dot Com bubble back in the early days of the internet. The reference is a nod to surging tulip prices that swept The Netherlands in 1636 and the resulting bubble pop and economic collapse that ensued. Speculation over early futures ... And that’s how the bubble popped, effectively making Tulip Mania the world’s first economic bubble. Why bitcoin is nothing like tulips. If we’re looking through the lens of past years, it’s understandable to compare the Dutch Tulip Mania with the rising prices of bitcoin. They were both highly valued assets and used as investment tools ... Related: What is bitcoin? Tulip mania . In the early 17th century, speculation helped drive the value of tulip bulbs in the Netherlands to previously unheard of prices. Eventually someone woke up, and the bubble burst. At some point when someone tried to sell or even short sell his tulip, others followed. The mania to sell was soon as much as the mania to buy. The price then crashed and hundreds of thousands of people went bankrupt. 2. Bitcoin. On Nov 1 2008, someone who called himself (or herself) Satoshi Nakamoto published a paper in a private cryptography ...
Is Bitcoin the biggest bubble since the Dutch Tulip Mania?
Dec 15 – Demelza Hays, a cryptocurrency researcher at Incrementum and the co-author of their inaugural Crypto Research Report, discusses comparisons between bitcoin and the 17thcentury tulip ... Is Bitcoin the biggest bubble since the Dutch Tulip Mania? ... Like this video? Sign in to make your opinion count. Sign in. 25 8. Don't like this video? ... CORRECTION: I say India in the video, I mean Turks/ Ottoman empire. The Bitcoin Bubble VS Tulip Mania. Which one is worse? Are we going to recover with the crypto market or are we going down from ... Join the CryptoTalk.News Telegram Chat to keep up with new Airdrops & Bounties! Don't miss out on FREE cryptocurrency https://t.me/ctn_live Why Bitcoin Is NOT Like Tulip Mania Join our Bitconnect ... This video covers the accusation that Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative bubble, and its comparison to things like "Tulip Mania." Sentdex.com Faceboo...